Precipitation, or lack thereof.
The Daniel Boone National Forest averages between 43 inches a year in the northeastern section to 53 inches in the southwestern section around the Big South Fork. Currently, the forest is in a precipitation deficit of around 4-8 inches. With the approaching fall and the driest period of the year, the forecast is for a seriously dry time in the woods. This is especially true to south and east, but the high ridges are dust dry now.
The most problematic aspect of a drought this time of year is forest fire hazards. After trees drop their leaves under cloudless skies, the forest floor experiences direct sunlight and high evaporation rates. This produces abundant fuel for forest fires.
So if you’re planning a trip this autumn, be careful with camp fires and consider using stoves for cooking and battery candles for illumination. The following discussion looks at national maps of drought severity and outlook.